BET SPREAD CALCULATOR

Optimal Betting Based on True Count

YOUR SETUP

RECOMMENDED UNIT SIZE

$25
Based on 1% of bankroll for 1-12 spread

YOUR BET SPREAD

Based on your inputs, here's how much to bet at each True Count:

True Count Edge Bet
Key insight: You only have an edge when TC ≥ +1. Betting big at negative counts is how casinos beat most "counters."

UNDERSTANDING THE MATH

Why bet spreading works

Basic strategy alone gives the casino a ~0.5% edge. Card counting tells you when the remaining deck favors the player. By betting more when you have the edge and less when you don't, you can flip the house edge in your favor.

Edge per true count

For every +1 true count above 0, your edge increases by approximately 0.5%. At TC +2, you have roughly a 0.5% edge. At TC +4, you have roughly a 1.5% edge.

The Kelly Criterion

Kelly betting suggests wagering a percentage of your bankroll equal to your edge divided by the variance. In practice, most advantage players use 1/2 Kelly or less to reduce variance and risk of ruin. A common rule: bet 1-2% of bankroll per unit.

Critical: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Even with an edge, short-term variance can wipe out your bankroll. A 1-12 spread with proper bankroll management targets ~1-2% hourly return with acceptable risk of ruin.

PRACTICAL TIPS

Camouflage your spread

  • Don't go min-to-max instantly
  • Vary bets by ±1 unit randomly
  • Occasionally bet into negative counts
  • Wong out when count tanks

Bankroll requirements

  • 200 units: ~5% risk of ruin
  • 400 units: ~1% risk of ruin
  • 1000 units: Near-zero risk
  • Never play with scared money

Heat management

  • Keep sessions under 1-2 hours
  • Rotate between casinos
  • Chat with dealers, look casual
  • Take "bathroom breaks" at high counts

QUIZ YOURSELF

Test your understanding. Tap any gold term to see its definition!