Why Good Players Lose (Sometimes)
Poker has luck. A lot of it. Here's how to survive the swings.
THE HARD TRUTH
Even if you play perfect poker, you will have losing days, losing weeks, and sometimes losing months. This isn't failure — it's just how probability works.
Think about it: If you flip a coin 10 times, you might get 7 heads and 3 tails. That doesn't mean the coin is broken — you just ran above average. In poker, running "below average" feels like bad luck, but it's completely normal.
Professional poker players call these swings "variance" — just a fancy word for "the normal ups and downs of probability."
SEE IT FOR YOURSELF
This simulator shows what happens to a winning player over time. Even with a 55% win rate (which is excellent), watch how wild the journey can be.
Run it multiple times. Notice how different each path looks, even with the same win rate. Some runs look like a rocket ship. Others look like a rollercoaster. Both are normal.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU
If you don't have enough money set aside for poker (your "bankroll"), one bad downswing can wipe you out — even if you're a winning player. That's why bankroll management exists.
The goal: Have enough money that you can survive the bad times and still be playing when the good times come.
BANKROLL RULES (SIMPLE VERSION)
These are the minimum amounts you should have before playing at each level:
🎰 Cash Games
Have at least 20 buy-ins for your stake. Playing $1/$2 with $200 max buy-in?
$4,000 minimum🏆 Tournaments
Have at least 50 buy-ins. Playing $50 tournaments?
$2,500 minimum📉 Move Down
If you lose 5 buy-ins at a stake, drop down. No shame — protect your roll.
Be honest📈 Move Up
Only move up when you have the full bankroll for the next level. Don't take shots.
Be patientTHE MENTAL GAME
Understanding variance isn't just about math — it's about keeping your head straight.
When you're losing: Don't play longer to "get even." Don't move up stakes to win it back faster. Don't blame the cards. Take a break. The math will work out over time.
When you're winning: Don't think you've "figured it out." Don't move up too fast. Don't get reckless. Stay humble — you might just be running good.
The pros know: Your results on any single day mean almost nothing. What matters is making good decisions, every hand, every day, for months and years. The money follows eventually.